Democrats for President: Calling the Horserace
Illinois senator Barack Obama made a de facto announcement that he will be running for president in 2008. He didn't exactly come out and say it, but he may as well have. He said he is forming an "exploratory committee" to address the idea, and will decide Feb. 10. This probably means that between now and Feb. 10 he is going to go around the country and have some serious "sit-downs" with some senior Democrats and basically find out if they will back him. Still, its unlikely that he will back down from this. So expect to see him enter in about three weeks.
What does this mean? Well, it means that, at the very least, he, Hilary Clinton and John Edwards are going to square off next year for the official nod. None of these candidates excites me very much. Here's my take:
Hilary Clinton: She is smart. Very smart. She has serious connections in the Democratic party and she actually has some unique ideas. She won a U.S. Senate seat in 2000 and was re-elected last year, to boot. New York is no easy state in which to pull that off. She's aggressive and she knows politics. Furthermore she will benefit from having Bill around. Let's face it, the guy could probably win if he were allowed to run in 2008. There's a chance she could eke in on the strength of that alone. Bill Clinton could be back in the White House. Don't think this idea doesn't excite people. Sure, he' be there in a diminished role, the First Husband or whatever, but come on, everybody knew Hillary was pulling some strings when Bill was in office, and it was the best eight years this country has seen in the past 20 or so. He'll definitely be the man behind the woman, if he doesn't end up running the whole show again.
However, this country just may not be ready for a woman president, and the connection to Slick Willy could actually be a detriment. Remember who does most of the voting in the U.S. and where those people live. If Hilary gets the Democratic nod she may split the party and drive some Democrats to the other side, just out of fear alone. Her credentials are also a bit wanting for a presidential candidate: just 6 years as a U.S. Senator. Other than that, she has been a lawyer, and she has been Bill's teammate. Those qualifications are borderline. Still, she somehow manages to be a major league contender.
John Edwards: This guy, on the other hand, is bush league. He still has not served a full term in the U.S. Senate. Before that he was a plaintiff's attorney, a rain maker. These are the televangelists of the legal world. He's a junkyard dog paid to make noise, scare the crap out of big corporations and not get spooked off his turf. Boldness is a valuable commodity in any field, but I don't think this guy brings much else to the table. Who is he? Anybody know? Personally, I believe he is part of the reason John Kerry lost in 2004. Kerry picked him as a kowtow to the South, but it backfired. If he has any brilliant ideas on foreign policy, I have yet to hear them. So far his platform seems to be simply Anti-Iraq war. Here's a newsflash: Just being anti-something does not get you elected. Look at Bob Dole in 1996; He ran on the ABC Ticket, which stood for Anybody But Clinton, and he lost. This was scandal-ridden Bill Clinton, mind you, already beset from all angles, 18-months into his first term. This was the man who, during the 1994 NCAA Finals (which Arkansas won, by the way) publicly said he thought he had "already lost for re-election" in 1996. Go figure.
In other words, Edwards does not belong in this race, and the primaries will expose that. His heart may be in the right place, but he doesn't have the political chops to make it into the Oval Office. Sorry, pal, you'll make it interesting, maybe, but in the end, you had better step out of the way and let the real dogs pull the sled.
Barack Obama: This, folks, is the most interesting candidate in the race. Obama, also, is a freshman Senator, having not even finished out his first term. He does, however, have four years previous experience in the Illinois State Legistlature. He also ran for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2000. Though he lost, he doubtless gained some experience and some connections. He also is a Harvard Law School graduate and taught constitutional law at U. of Illinois. Suffice it to say this guy is familiar with U.S. laws and national politics.
Obama's father was Kenyan and his mother was a white woman from Kansas, a pedigree which, in this day and age, qualifies someone as African American or, more simply, black. Like with Hilary's situation, Obama's "minority" status could be an advantage or an impediment. It is hard to say. I'd love to believe we are in a country and an age where such things don't matter as much as someone's character, but I don't think we are there quite yet. Let there be no doubt; his race will play a huge role in his chances for president.
Obama has been the benefactor of some serious hype from the media machine, which may have turned him into a more serious contender than he is. During his campaign for the U.S. Senate in 2004, he spoke at the Democratic National Convention and people where already, even then, giddily whispering that he could make a White House bid in 2008. The media beast (yes, I just called a machine, too) is a fickle thing, believe me, I know. It can puff someone up and tear them down just as fast. But the bottom line is, this guy will have to draw voters up off their asses in Nov. 2008 and convince them to pull the lever on his name. If his general demeanor and speaking style are any indication, this guy has the poise and the all-important feel of sincerity necessary to win, in my opinion. Let's face it, they're all screwing us, but the ones who win are the ones who make us feel good about it. Politics is business is salesmanship, and this guy looks to be the best used-car salesman on the lot. He seems straightforward, calm and unbiased. You get the impression he might actually be thinking about what he says before he says it, and that he might just be able to bridge the partisan rift that Bush 43 has helped widen. If, that is, IF, he can get into the White House.
The Democrats' road to the White House is not paved with gold, not with this cast of characters. The notion that the U.S. is simply so fed up with the Republicans that the Democrats can put anybody up anybody they want and steal the show is hogwash, and elections have been blown on such thinking. For the Democrats to win they have to get some serious support from the Big Red "L"; the Midwest and the South. With a woman, a black man and a trial lawyer all giving it a shot, it is hard to know who can do it.
This analysis has been pretty gut-heavy, and I would be remiss if I did not address the issues so stay tuned in further posting. However, I have never put much stock in "the issues." People can rant and rave all day long in the run-up to the vote, but when they are standing in the voting booth, all alone, they vote with their gut. Therefore, this analysis may be just be the most accurate one you'll read.
What does this mean? Well, it means that, at the very least, he, Hilary Clinton and John Edwards are going to square off next year for the official nod. None of these candidates excites me very much. Here's my take:
Hilary Clinton: She is smart. Very smart. She has serious connections in the Democratic party and she actually has some unique ideas. She won a U.S. Senate seat in 2000 and was re-elected last year, to boot. New York is no easy state in which to pull that off. She's aggressive and she knows politics. Furthermore she will benefit from having Bill around. Let's face it, the guy could probably win if he were allowed to run in 2008. There's a chance she could eke in on the strength of that alone. Bill Clinton could be back in the White House. Don't think this idea doesn't excite people. Sure, he' be there in a diminished role, the First Husband or whatever, but come on, everybody knew Hillary was pulling some strings when Bill was in office, and it was the best eight years this country has seen in the past 20 or so. He'll definitely be the man behind the woman, if he doesn't end up running the whole show again.
However, this country just may not be ready for a woman president, and the connection to Slick Willy could actually be a detriment. Remember who does most of the voting in the U.S. and where those people live. If Hilary gets the Democratic nod she may split the party and drive some Democrats to the other side, just out of fear alone. Her credentials are also a bit wanting for a presidential candidate: just 6 years as a U.S. Senator. Other than that, she has been a lawyer, and she has been Bill's teammate. Those qualifications are borderline. Still, she somehow manages to be a major league contender.
John Edwards: This guy, on the other hand, is bush league. He still has not served a full term in the U.S. Senate. Before that he was a plaintiff's attorney, a rain maker. These are the televangelists of the legal world. He's a junkyard dog paid to make noise, scare the crap out of big corporations and not get spooked off his turf. Boldness is a valuable commodity in any field, but I don't think this guy brings much else to the table. Who is he? Anybody know? Personally, I believe he is part of the reason John Kerry lost in 2004. Kerry picked him as a kowtow to the South, but it backfired. If he has any brilliant ideas on foreign policy, I have yet to hear them. So far his platform seems to be simply Anti-Iraq war. Here's a newsflash: Just being anti-something does not get you elected. Look at Bob Dole in 1996; He ran on the ABC Ticket, which stood for Anybody But Clinton, and he lost. This was scandal-ridden Bill Clinton, mind you, already beset from all angles, 18-months into his first term. This was the man who, during the 1994 NCAA Finals (which Arkansas won, by the way) publicly said he thought he had "already lost for re-election" in 1996. Go figure.
In other words, Edwards does not belong in this race, and the primaries will expose that. His heart may be in the right place, but he doesn't have the political chops to make it into the Oval Office. Sorry, pal, you'll make it interesting, maybe, but in the end, you had better step out of the way and let the real dogs pull the sled.
Barack Obama: This, folks, is the most interesting candidate in the race. Obama, also, is a freshman Senator, having not even finished out his first term. He does, however, have four years previous experience in the Illinois State Legistlature. He also ran for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2000. Though he lost, he doubtless gained some experience and some connections. He also is a Harvard Law School graduate and taught constitutional law at U. of Illinois. Suffice it to say this guy is familiar with U.S. laws and national politics.
Obama's father was Kenyan and his mother was a white woman from Kansas, a pedigree which, in this day and age, qualifies someone as African American or, more simply, black. Like with Hilary's situation, Obama's "minority" status could be an advantage or an impediment. It is hard to say. I'd love to believe we are in a country and an age where such things don't matter as much as someone's character, but I don't think we are there quite yet. Let there be no doubt; his race will play a huge role in his chances for president.
Obama has been the benefactor of some serious hype from the media machine, which may have turned him into a more serious contender than he is. During his campaign for the U.S. Senate in 2004, he spoke at the Democratic National Convention and people where already, even then, giddily whispering that he could make a White House bid in 2008. The media beast (yes, I just called a machine, too) is a fickle thing, believe me, I know. It can puff someone up and tear them down just as fast. But the bottom line is, this guy will have to draw voters up off their asses in Nov. 2008 and convince them to pull the lever on his name. If his general demeanor and speaking style are any indication, this guy has the poise and the all-important feel of sincerity necessary to win, in my opinion. Let's face it, they're all screwing us, but the ones who win are the ones who make us feel good about it. Politics is business is salesmanship, and this guy looks to be the best used-car salesman on the lot. He seems straightforward, calm and unbiased. You get the impression he might actually be thinking about what he says before he says it, and that he might just be able to bridge the partisan rift that Bush 43 has helped widen. If, that is, IF, he can get into the White House.
The Democrats' road to the White House is not paved with gold, not with this cast of characters. The notion that the U.S. is simply so fed up with the Republicans that the Democrats can put anybody up anybody they want and steal the show is hogwash, and elections have been blown on such thinking. For the Democrats to win they have to get some serious support from the Big Red "L"; the Midwest and the South. With a woman, a black man and a trial lawyer all giving it a shot, it is hard to know who can do it.
This analysis has been pretty gut-heavy, and I would be remiss if I did not address the issues so stay tuned in further posting. However, I have never put much stock in "the issues." People can rant and rave all day long in the run-up to the vote, but when they are standing in the voting booth, all alone, they vote with their gut. Therefore, this analysis may be just be the most accurate one you'll read.
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